Impact Data Story
Protocol + Transforms Biomedical Economics
Comprehensive analysis of reproducibility’s impact across cost, capital, efficiency, and system-wide capacity. All metrics compare 45% baseline reproducibility to 85% with Protocol +.
The Data Story
Protocol + transforms biomedical economics by addressing the single largest cost driver: preclinical signal quality. Every stakeholder benefits from improving reproducibility from 45% to 85%: discovery companies deploy 2× more programs per fund; investors see 2–2.2× portfolio advantage with smaller checksets; NIH unlocks ~$19–20B in virtual capacity with the same budget; and patients gain access to 410 additional therapies over a decade. The cumulative recoverable waste—~$108B over 10 years—becomes capital for new programs rather than write-offs from failed trials.
| Metric Dimension | Baseline (45%) | Protocol + (85%) | Improvement | Impact Type | Per-Year Savings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Impact: Approval Economics | |||||
| Cost Structure Per-Approval Cost (Failure-Adjusted) | $879M | ~$408M | ↓ 53% | Cost Reduction | $471M |
| NIH-Level Analysis Cost per Approval (NIH Budget) | $1.34B | ~$622M | ↓ 54% | Budget Efficiency | ~$19–20B |
| Capital & Financing: Investor Impact | |||||
| Financing Capital Required (Phase II) | ~$120M | ~$75M | ↓ 38% | Dilution Reduction | $45M |
| Portfolio Math Programs per Fund (Same $) | 1.0× | 2.0× | ↑ 100% | Portfolio Advantage | 2x Shots |
| Approvals & Throughput: System Capacity | |||||
| NIH Capacity Approvals per Year (NIH Budget) | 35 | 76 | ↑ 117% | Throughput Gain | +41/yr |
| Discovery Impact Therapies Approved (10-Year Horizon) | 350 | 760+ | ↑ 117% | Therapeutic Access | +410 total |
| Waste & Recoverable Value: Capital Reallocation | |||||
| Cost Breakdown Waste from False-Positive Programs (Per-Approval) | $350M | $80–100M | ↓ 71–77% | Major Opportunity | ~$350M |
| Annual Savings by 2031 Recoverable Waste (Annual) | — | ~$8–10B | New Pool | Reinvestment Source | $8–10B |
| Cumulative (10-Year) Recoverable Capital (2026–2036) | — | ~$108B | 2.3× NIH | Long-Term Value | $108B total |
| Efficiency: Cost per Scientific Outcome | |||||
| Scientific Quality Reproducibility Rate | 45% | 85% | ↑ 89% | Signal Quality | 40 ppts |
| Program Efficiency Cost per Reproducible Result | $1.95B | ~$480M | ↓ 75% | Efficiency Gain | $1.47B |
| Stakeholder Summary: Who Wins Most | |||||
| Discovery Companies Net Benefit (per program family) | — | $471M saved | +2.0x programs | Portfolio Math | Max |
| Investors / VCs Portfolio Expected Value | 1.0× | 2.0–2.2× | ↑ 100–120% | Return on Capital | 2–2.2x |
| NIH / Public Funders Virtual Capacity Gain | $47.22B | $47.22B + $19–20B | +40% impact | Budget Leverage | ~$19–20B |
| Patients & Society Additional Therapies (10 Years) | 350 | 760+ | +410 | Therapeutic Access | 410 more |
The Data Story
Protocol + transforms biomedical economics by addressing the single largest cost driver: preclinical signal quality. Every stakeholder benefits from improving reproducibility from 45% to 85%: discovery companies deploy 2× more programs per fund; investors see 2–2.2× portfolio advantage with smaller checksets; NIH unlocks ~$19–20B in virtual capacity with the same budget; and patients gain access to 410 additional therapies over a decade. The cumulative recoverable waste—~$108B over 10 years—becomes capital for new programs rather than write-offs from failed trials.